A strand of golden South Sea pearls from Mastoloni

As prices of “The Big Three” skyrocket, supply dwindles, and focus on sustainability grows, an age of open-mindedness is dawning.

sapphire gemstone (photo: Goraya Shoaib)

With endless rows of showcases, enthusiastic vendors, and seemingly bottomless inventories to peruse, the Tucson gem, mineral, and fossil shows attract onlookers, buyers, and designers from all corners of the colored gemstone universe.

At AGTA GemFair Tucson 2024, conversations with exhibitors and the organization’s education sessions brought color and clarity to the current state of the market.

Here are the top takeaways from a week of sit-downs and seminars with the experts in the desert.

A Taste for Finer Things
“If you see a gemstone, especially in finer quality at this [Tucson] show, this is the time to buy it,” Stuart Robertson, president of Gemworld International Inc., encouraged the audience during an education session on the near-term outlook for the gemstone market.

Robertson, who is also research director for the company’s publication, GemGuide, addressed the audience alongside GemGuide Editor-in-Chief Brecken Branstrator.

Though the room was full of people tuning in to get a broad overview of the gemstone market, several attendees were also hoping for a discussion on the higher-than-usual prices.

Robertson’s early remarks addressed the topic, stating that right now, in the fine and extra fine gem-quality categories, there’s simply not enough material to produce the type of pressure needed to push prices down.

“Our biggest concern right now with the market is that [it has] simply nowhere close to the production levels it had before the pandemic, so the idea that an influx of material is going to help alleviate price pressures is unrealistic,” said Robertson.

“If anything, prices will hold stable, possibly even continue to move up in those categories, because there just isn’t the production to support any negative movement.”

One category still heavily affected by lags in production due to pandemic challenges is pearls.

The State of Pearls
“Pearls, in general, were probably the most hard-hit of any product during the pandemic,” Robertson said.

Information on the gem wasn’t included in his original presentation, but the topic quickly came up during the Q&A that followed.

“Pearl prices are very high now because they lost entire seasons of production [during the pandemic] in most of the main categories—Tahitian, South Sea, and Akoya,” he explained.

His expectation is that pearl prices will remain high for about three to four years before moderating.

Back in October 2023, Ray Mastoloni of pearl company Mastoloni confirmed a production-related shortage of the above-mentioned goods in Europe and the United States, where pearls also are trending in fashion.

Perhaps inconveniently, the precious gem was simultaneously gaining popularity in another region.

“There has become a huge demand for these pearls from China. The Chinese market is very hot on pearls at the moment, and they’ve been buying up anything [of a reasonable quality] they can get their hands on,” Mastoloni said in an interview with National Jeweler late last year. “It’s forced the price way, way high, and the Chinese are paying huge prices for goods.

“Because of our relationships [with suppliers], we still get merchandise. We don’t get a lot, but we get enough.”

While there’s a typical ebb and flow to the market, Mastoloni noted that it’s unusual to have such high demand centralized in one place. 

Joshua Israileff, vice president of operations for his family’s pearl supply business, ASBA USA, witnessed the oddity firsthand.

“By the time we arrived in Hong Kong in September, it was like people pushing [each other] over for hot cakes,” he says.

He says his mother, Dominique Israileff, said she’s never seen it like this in the 40 years she’s been in the business.

“There was a demand unlike [anything] we’ve ever seen,” Joshua adds. “We get it, they’re selling a lot, but we don’t get why.”

Joshua theorizes the mania is, in part, related to the production delay.

He also cites the extraordinary influence of Chinese actress and influencer Ni Ni, who embarked on a unique, pearl-focused social media campaign while promoting her latest film, “Lost in the Stars.”

Joshua says the annual Robert Wan auction, scheduled to take place in Hong Kong in September, was canceled a day ahead of time because a private Chinese dealer paid significantly above the asking price for all the Tahitian pearls offered.

“It’s definitely between 50 and 100 percent more expensive [to buy pearls],” he says. “What you really can’t find anymore is the gem-[quality] goods. The super-nice stuff, that’s the stuff that’s getting harder.”

The Elusive ‘Big Three’
Like high-end pearls, top-quality gemstones are also getting more difficult to obtain.

AGTA CEO John W. Ford Sr. also commented on rising prices in the opening session of GemFair’s education series, which he presented with Martin Rapaport, chairman of the Rapaport Group.

“In general, the [rising] price of fine gemstones across the board is just [astounding]—there doesn’t seem to be an end to it. There are transaction prices I’ve never seen happening before that are happening,” Ford told the audience.

Rubies, sapphires and, to a lesser extent, emeralds, commonly referred to as the “Big Three,” are seeing the biggest jump.

“They’re all up, but sapphires would probably give you the most sticker shock as you’re walking around the show,” Ford said.

Sapphires, particularly blue sapphires, continue to be the top seller in the Western market, Robertson said in his presentation with Branstrator.

“Blue sapphire prices we see, at the very least, having support now in the finest qualities and probably ticking upward.”

Rubies are a different conversation. Without supply of Burmese material, ruby is regarded as basically a one-source stone at this point, Robertson said.

“[Ruby] has gotten expensive enough to really limit its accessibility in the larger part of our industry,” he said. “It’s a specialized market at this point. Sophisticated buyers recognize the rarity of fine ruby.

“Ruby [prices], we think, have probably leveled off but will find support in the high end just because of the mechanics of how it’s put forward.”

The Big Three’s price spike appears to be leading to increased interest in—and, on some level, increased prices of—gemstones of similar colors, as some in the market search for alternatives.

For example, red spinels, which can look like rubies, garnered much interest at the show.

David Nassi, president of 100% Natural Ltd., notes the increased attention on the gemstone.

“Blue sapphire [prices] are up, I would say, at least 50 percent as well,” he confirms. “But to me, the other things that are increasing at a faster pace are spinels and other alternatives to Burma rubies and sapphires.”

Robertson isn’t surprised by the trend. He said there is interest in spinel along with other similarly colored gemstones typically offered at lower price points, like rhodolite garnet and rubellite.

A Diamond Alternative
The topic of high prices leading consumers to look elsewhere sounds similar to conversations happening in the diamond market right now, as lab-grown diamonds are positioned as a price-conscious alternative to natural diamonds.

However, lab-grown stones don’t have the same kind of appeal as alternatives in the colored stone market, which saw those disruptions a century ago.